Odds, outliers, random – such terms are batted around like gnats among the economists and statisticians here at the Boston College research center that sponsors this blog. Recently, we tossed around some parallels between the art of NCAA Basketball Bracketology and picking stocks or actively managed mutual funds.
Here’s our Final Four:
A fresh printout of an unscrawled bracket is like a new pool of money to invest – it engenders the hope of winning big. The thrill can give way to defeat — very suddenly.
Admit it: Most people fill in their bracket winners without doing any research on the teams they’re selecting. (And who reads a prospectus?)
A team (or stock) on a winning streak is a prime candidate for losing – and it takes only one in the single-elimination championship.
Past performance is not a reliable predictor of playoff results. Remember the 2011 NCAA basketball champion? UConn lost last week. And I won’t even mention the Duke Blue Devils.
Send in your own ideas to Squared Away! To do so, click “Learn More.”Learn More
Tried-and-true financial frauds – Ponzi schemes, high-yield investments, and “pump and dump” stock scams – have victimized unsuspecting targets for decades, even centuries.
These well-known frauds are effective, because con men change their disguises so they won’t be recognized. Six common disguises are detailed in a report I wrote for the Financial Security Project at Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research, which hosts this blog.
In this video, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution talks about his latest book and offers a clear-sighted explanation for complex macro-economic forces that shape all Americans’ saving habits and financial security.
Starting in the early 1980s, stock markets boomed and housing prices increased year after year, and Americans “thought they were getting rich,” explains economist Barry Bosworth. “So they thought, ‘Let’s spend a little bit of it.’ “
Billions of dollars of wealth vanished in the 2008 financial market collapse, marking what may be the end of a golden era of wealth formation and undermining plans laid by workers and retirees, he said. Bosworth’s book was released last month: “A Decline in Saving: A Threat to America’s Prosperity.”
Full disclosure: The book incorporates research funded by the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) through the Retirement Research Consortium, which also funds this blog. The opinions and conclusions expressed are solely those of the blog’s author and do not represent the opinions or policy of SSA or any agency of the federal government.
A breakthrough experiment determined that some low-income tax filers are willing to save part of their IRS refund after all.
What separates savers from non-savers is each individual’s own “mental accounting.” What specifically influences them is whether their refunds exceeded their anticipation.
The research found that 7 percent of all low-income filers saved part of their refunds. But 12 percent of people who got more than they’d anticipated agreed to save – they did so by opening a savings account or buying a US savings bond or certificate of deposit. Only 4.5 percent of those who got the same as, or less than, anticipated, saved part of it.
“At tax sites, most people don’t save,” said Michael Collins, director of the Center for Financial Security at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. “But if you target the right people you might find some savers.” His research controlled for income, demographics and the refund amount. …Learn More
In the second of two videos, retirees from the Savin Hill Apartments in Boston’s Dorchester neighborhood spoke honestly about the decisions they made during their working lives that have affected their financial security in retirement. The residents come from all walks of life and from home towns ranging from Dabrowa Tarnowska, Poland, and Thomasville, Alabama, to around the corner in East Boston.
Before retiring, James Gomes said he often wasted his regular paychecks from General Electric. Arlene Starr wishes she’d saved – like her sister did. And immigrant Trung Quang Pham’s low income made it tough to set money aside.
They are residents of the Savin Hill Apartments in Boston, most of whom are “pretty much on fixed incomes,” said apartment manager Sandra Baker of CMJ Management Co.
They are not alone either. Millions of retirees rely on Social Security’s fixed monthly pensions, which average $1,181. The federal pension program provides the vast majority of retirement income for nearly one in four retired couples and nearly half of the elderly living alone. And new research for the first time determined that a large swath of the elderly leave this world with little or no assets left in savings and personal retirement accounts.
In the first of two videos, retirees in the Savin Hill Apartments generously agreed to discuss the issues they face for Squared Away. The second video – about their financial decisions and regrets over a lifetime – appears Thursday. …Learn More
You have to admire a financial writer and editor with the guts to put this on his LinkedIn profile: “While many Wall Street people go to Harvard or Yale University to learn about business, Ron went to art school.”
The cartoons shown here are in a humorous financial book by Ronald DeLegge 2d, who said he first earned his chops as an insurance salesman at a small Midwestern company that eventually became part of AIG. His cartoons appear in “Gents with no ¢ents: A closer look at Wall Street, its customers, financial regulators, and the media.” Dave Clegg was the illustrator.